Who’s Setting the Trends in Craft Beer?: An Analysis of HomebrewCompetition Submissions and Commercial Sales by Beer Style

The objective of this paper is to analyze the impact of the beer homebrewing community on commercial craft breweries. To keep the focus on smaller brewers that are likely more flexible and connected to their local communities, which are both the homebrewers and the craft brewers, I focus on breweries that produce less than 15,000 BBLs (472,500 U.S. gallons) per year. This level keeps each brewery analyzed under the label of regional brewery, as defined by the Brewers Association. Data from the Reggie Beer Competition Manager website contains over 104,000 observations for homebrew competition submissions from 2016 – 2025. These submissions are organized by Beer Judge Competition Program styles.

These submissions will be compared to commercial sales at craft breweries using the same style guidelines. The research hypothesis investigated is whether homebrewing competition submissions by style drive commercial sales or not. In either direction, a statistically significant relationship would suggest that local homebrewers have an impact on their local craft beer communities by driving the sales of specific styles or by seeking commercial examples of the beers that they would like to brew. Such information can inform craft brewery owners as they navigate relationships with or consider engaging with local homebrew communities.